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Demand Planning and Forecasting 2-Day Workshop - Boston

Demand Planning
May 23,2012 - May 24,2012
Four Points by Sheraton at Norwood, Massachusetts, United States
 

Highlights

Demand Planning and Forecasting Workshop - Boston, MA

Improve Forecasting with better Models and Diagnostics!

May 23rd (Wed) and 24th (Thur), 2012 - 2 Day Interactive Workshop in Boston, MA at The Four Points by Sheraton Boston/Norwood.

view and print seminar brochure (PDF)

Register Now! Regular price 995 - Early-Bird price$895 available until March 1, 2012


Interested in our SAP APO 3rd Day? CLICK HERE

In this specialized two-day course, we will explain the modeling methodology and process behind accurate demand forecasts and how to effectively use promotional information to arrive at a consensus forecast. The focus will be on demand modeling using statistical techniques, the methodology to perform model diagnostics, forecast accuracy measurement and the process to incorporate market intelligence.

If you are a new demand planner looking to enhance your knowledge of business forecasting, you cannot afford to miss this opportunity!

Get skills you can use at work

We will explain and demonstrate best practices in model selection, illustrate how to improve model quality, and teach you how to leverage forecast measurement process.

Learn from industry experience

We will bring practical examples from our consulting experience

Network with peers

You will have the opportunity to meet, interact, and learn from other demand planning professionals with team challenges and networking exercises.

Add to your credentials

Upon completion, you will be awarded a certificate of completion from Demand Planning LLC, attesting to your newly-acquired skills in Demand Planning and Forecasting.  

Detailed Outline of the Workshop:

Day 1

8:30AM to 5:00PM

Day 2

8:30AM to 4:30PM

  • 7:30 AM Registration & Breakfast
  • 8:30 AM Welcome
  • 9:00 AM Demand Planning Overview
    • Definition of Demand
    • Introduction to Demand Planning- What, Why and How?
    • The Service – Cost – Balance Model
    • Distinction between Business Forecasting and Demand Planning
    • What to forecast – shipments vs. orders
    • Key Terminology – Forecast Horizon, Buckets & Periodicity
    • Constrained vs. Unconstrained forecasts
    • Demand Management
    • Organization Structure and Culture
    • Role of the Demand Forecaster
    • Consensus and communication
  • 10:30 AM Coffee Break
  • 10:45 AM Data Analysis for demand forecasting
    • Forecast Problem and Data collection
    • Data cleaning challenges
    • Data filtering
    • Adjusting for historical shifts in demand
    • Process to Identify Outliers
    • Methodology for outlier correction
    • What is the approach to data analysis?
    • Impact of Data volatility on Forecasting
    • Measuring volatility
    • Event Impact - product life cycle, promotions and pricing.
  • 12:30 PM Lunch Break
  • 1:30 PM Demand Components:
    • Simple Model of Demand
    • Demand Volatility
    • Predictable and unpredictable volatility
    • Illustration of Demand components
    • Key Components of a Demand Plan
    • Understanding the components - Trend, Seasonality, Cyclicality
  • 2:45 PM Coffee Break & Networking Exercise
  • 3:00 PM Modeling & Graphical Decomposition (Cont’ed)
    • Graphical Decomposition
    • Forecasting by Decomposition using Excel
    • SKU Segmentaion for Forecast Modeling
    • Modeling by Exception
  • 4:30 PM Assignment of Forecasting exercises to participants
  • 8:30 AM Forecast Errors and Model Diagnostic
    • Definition of Demand Forecast Errors
    • Errors over time vs. Errors Across Products
    • Model Errors defined
    • Definition of MPE, MAPE and RMSE
    • Model Diagnostics through Forecast Error
  • 9:30 AM Statistical Modeling
  • Introduction to Forecast Modeling
    • Qualities of a good Statistical Forecast
    • Balancing between Model Fit vs. Model Robustness
    • Time Series versus Multi-Variate Methods
    • Averages
    • First Order Exponential Smoothing or Constant Models
    • Holt Models to accommodate Trend
    • Holt Winters Models
    • Family of Smoothing Models
  • Exercise on Modeling
  • 10:30 AM Morning Break
  • 10:45 AM Modeling (cont’d)
    • Exponential Trend and Dampening
    • Additive vs. Multiplicative Seasonality in Models
    • How to set up a simple forecast model in Excel
    • Multiple Linear Regression Models in Excel
    • Croston’s Model for modeling intermittent demand
  • 12:30 PM Lunch Break
  • 1:30 PM Discussion and answers to assigned exercises
  • 2:30 PM Coffee Break
  • 2:45 PM Measuring Forecast Performance
    • Forecast errors and actionability
    • Sources of Forecast Error
    • Definition of Demand Planning Metrics – WAPE and Bias
    • Types of Bias
    • SKU Mix Error
    • Error Analysis for continuous improvement
    • Exception Management through Pareto principles
    • Summary of Error Reduction approaches

Register Now!

Pricing

10% discount for groups of 3 or more.  For special Hotel pricing, please call the office at (781) 995-0685.











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Event Profile

Theme: Demand Planning
Speakers: Dr. Mark Chockalingam Ph.D.

Contact Details

Contact person: Melissa Chrisemer
Event website: http://demandplanning.net/demandplanning_tutorialMA.htm
Phone: 781-995-0685
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